Review and Update of the 1995 Physical
Medicine and Rehabilitation Workforce Study
Overall Assessment
Figure 9 presents a comparison
of the 1995 workforce study’s supply and demand estimates and the panel’s
revised supply and demand estimates. The lines labeled "1995 Current Info
Demand" and "1995 Full Information Demand" are estimates under
the then current and "full" market information, respectively,
adjusted for projected managed care and other effects using the 1995 study
assumptions. The line labeled "1995 Supply" is an estimate of the
number of practitioners each year made under the assumptions of the 1995
study.
The "Panel Supply" line illustrates the study
panel’s revised assumptions about the supply of physiatrists; note that it
nearly coincides with the original estimate. The "Panel Estimated
Demand" line is adjusted for the effects of managed care, using the
panel’s revised estimates.
The figure suggests consistency between the 1995
workforce study results and the 1998 revisions. Under the revised estimates,
demand growth roughly coincides with growth in supply, staying at or above
supply throughout the period. This is consistent with the "full
information" case. In fact, it represents a more plausible trajectory for
demand, and the effect of better information on demand, than does the
"full information" case from the 1995 study.
In summary, the study panel is
slightly more sanguine about managed care and its effect on demand than what
was projected in 1995. Projections of residency positions and new entrants are
slightly lower than in the earlier study, but the net effects on supply are
small. In general, the qualitative conclusions of the 1995 study are not
affected by the study panel’s review.
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